Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India on 4–5 December is his first since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In some ways, the trip can be regarded as routine: both countries’ leaders meet regularly at annual summits (although the last, in July 2024 in Moscow, came after a gap of over two years). Putin will address the plenary session of the Russia-India Forum and attend the 23rd India–Russia annual summit.
However, in a broader geopolitical context, the visit comes at a time of strain on the bilateral relationship, with New Delhi under growing pressure from the West, and the US in particular, to downgrade relations with Moscow. Putin’s visit comes at a time when the Trump administration has been ramping up pressure on India to reduce its purchase of Russian crude oil.
India’s purchase of Russian crude rose from less than one per cent of total oil imports before the war in Ukraine to a peak of almost 40 per cent, making it the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude and the second-largest buyer of Russian crude after China.
Half of the 50 per cent tariffs that the Trump administration imposed on India in August emanate from the country’s purchase of Russian oil (the other half comes because of their inability to conclude a bilateral trade agreement).
Tariffs were followed in October by the US’s secondary sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil and Rosneft companies, which account for over half of the country’s crude exports (although Indian companies can still buy from non-sanctioned entities).
Indian purchases of Russian crude went up in November, reaching the highest levels since July, as refineries stocked up ahead of the sanctions deadline on 21 November. But this is expected to drop, with Indian companies already responding to the sanctions: Adani, a large Indian trading group, has implemented a ban on the entry of sanctioned oil vessels at the 14 ports that it operates across the country. Reliance, which owns the world’s largest refinery in Jamnagar, Gujarat, has also reduced its purchase of Russian crude.
There has been a simultaneous increase in Indian crude purchases from elsewhere (including the United States) – reducing both India’s exposure to Washington’s sanctions and its trade imbalance with the US – a key grievance of the Trump administration. New Delhi has concluded an agreement for the purchase of US liquified petroleum gas. It is also stepping up imports from the Middle East.